For decades, Republicans have chaFor decades, Republicans have championed the idea that the U.S. would thrive with lower taxes and reduced access to social safety net programs. Now, with former President Donald Trump’s sweeping new legislation about to become law, America is about to see what life might look like under that vision.
Trump’s major tax reform bill, set to be signed into law on July 4th, brings his campaign promises to fruition. The bill extends the tax cuts from his first term and introduces new deductions meant to benefit working-class voters, the very base that was crucial for his re-election bid. However, the bill isn’t just about financial relief. It also aims to reshape key welfare programs like Medicaid and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), making deep cuts while imposing stricter work requirements. Nonpartisan estimates suggest the fallout could impact millions, shaking up not just the poorest, but everyday Americans.
A Deep Cut to Social Programs
The most significant changes in Trump’s new congressional bill involve Medicaid and SNAP, which are critical programs for low-income Americans. The bill mandates stricter work requirements, and for the first time, states will need to contribute to the cost of SNAP. According to projections from the CBO and other independent analysts, around 11.8 million people could lose access to Medicaid, and up to 8 million may be cut from SNAP. Republicans argue that these measures will weed out “waste, fraud, and abuse,” but critics warn they will ultimately strip benefits from the most vulnerable.
Lelaine Bigelow, the Executive Director of the Georgetown Center on Poverty and Inequality, says this bill will affect everyone. “This isn’t just an us vs. them issue; it impacts all of us,” she explains. “It will affect your neighbors, your kids’ classmates, and even the businesses that rely on these programs.” This shift mirrors the big lies Trump has been promoting over the years—claims of a bloated government, where tax cuts are seen as the answer to fiscal woes, and social programs as burdens on society.
What’s Inside the “One Big, Beautiful Bill”?
Trump’s big bill brings about more than just tax cuts. Along with the tax relief measures, which primarily benefit the wealthiest Americans, the legislation also aims to funnel billions into immigration enforcement and building the wall along the U.S.-Mexico border. The bill also cuts funding for green energy incentives, a move in line with Republican ideals that aim to limit government intervention in the economy.
While the deficit and national debt continue to rise—predicted to increase by $3.3 trillion by 2034 due to these tax reductions—many experts argue that the sugar-high boost to the economy won’t be sustainable. This is a classic move from the playbook of conservatives like Senator Mitch McConnell and Representative Mike Collins, who have long advocated for smaller government and lower taxes. However, the long-term impacts of these measures could hurt the most vulnerable.
How Will Local Communities Be Affected?
Even those who don’t rely on federal programs might feel the effects of these cuts. Local businesses could see a decline in sales, particularly grocery stores, as fewer people qualify for SNAP. Rural hospitals, many of which rely heavily on Medicaid, could also face financial challenges despite the inclusion of a $50 billion fund aimed at assisting financially strained facilities. This ripple effect would reduce local demand and could lead to job insecurity in many regions.
University of Michigan sociology professor Robert Manduca predicts that the combined effect of Medicaid and SNAP cuts could lead to a $120 billion loss per year in local economies. This could result in job loss for workers and a shrinking economy for business owners who rely on government programs to stimulate consumer spending.
The Big Picture: Trump’s Legacy and the Future
While many Americans may be unaware of how deeply these benefit cuts will affect their daily lives, experts like Bigelow emphasize the broad consequences of these changes. The bill’s beneficiaries will primarily be the top earners, leaving the majority of Americans to face cuts to vital programs. According to research from the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, only 2% of the population will see most of the tax benefits—those in the highest income brackets. In contrast, 34% of the population will be negatively impacted by the Medicaid and SNAP cuts.
Though the bill promises immediate tax relief, future generations may bear the brunt of the financial damage. Experts like Maya MacGuineas, President of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, argue that while the bill might create a short-term economic boost, the resulting deficit will weaken the economy in the long run. “We may see a sugar-high in the next couple of years,” she says, “but what follows that will likely be a crash.”
Trump’s Big Gamble
In the end, the legislation is a gamble that might pay off for the wealthiest Americans, but it raises the stakes for the rest of the population. As Trump’s lies about “draining the swamp” and cutting unnecessary government programs continue to resonate with his supporters, it remains to be seen how this new law will play out. Trump’s actions, including his calls to end his campaign, reflect a larger trend towards a more economically polarized America, where the rich continue to benefit from tax cuts, and the poor bear the brunt of the changes.
With this bill, Trump is pushing for a world that echoes his previous campaign rhetoric, yet many fear it will widen the gap between the rich and the rest of America. Whether this law will be remembered as Trump’s legacy or as a dangerous mistake will depend on how its effects unfold over time.
